Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Severe Outbreak Wednesday

Won't go into much detail as I'm low on time but a potent setup may unfold Wednesday 17th across much of the southern plains. Tornadoes are a good possibility with the great low-level shear values associated with the system. This will definately not be an easy chase with storm motions around 40kts and a bad road network. A lot has to unfold right though for this event to live up to some hype its already getting so I'll leave it at that. In the mean time, here's what OUN and SPC are saying:





...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS. AND...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 40-50+ KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Large Gustnado captured in W. Oklahoma

I documented a large gustnado near Roosevelt, OK on Sunday the 14th. This 'swirl' was located on the outflow boundary of a HP hybrid type supercell around 6pm. There was definite cyclonic rotation there before it got to the road but the storm was definatley not associated with any type of mesocyclone. There is a debate as if this was a weak tornado and the news stations all called it a tornado so who knows. It looked pretty weet though. I'll hopefully have a full report up on my webpage, www.capturethestorm.com , within a week or so. Hopefully I'll have the video up in the near future.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Plains Storm Chase this Weekend

It looks at though this weekend (10/13-10/14) may present some chasing opportunities. I don't want to get overly excited or anything especially after what happened last weekend but the potential is there. Hopefully I'll get one last taste of a nice supercell before the long winter sets in. I'll update either Saturday or Sunday morning as to where I might be headed.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Severe Episode Possible this Weekend

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (5th-7th) all have potential to be good chase days across the plains as a large western trough will slowly move east. Large model discrepancies past Saturday night keep Sunday's potential a question mark at this time. Friday, I will not be able to chase due to previous arrangements but the bulk of the action may be elevated north of a retreating front in Nebraska/S. Dakota because of a stout cap. If storms can fire along the boundary or in the warm sector, there's a chance they could produce tornadoes due to sufficient instability coupled with great shear.

Saturday, looks to be potentially a big day depending on timing of the associated lift in the mid levels as well as any jet streaks rounding the base of the trough. Again, the cap will be strong but it appears there will be enough forcing to overcome it. Below is the NAM/WRF 12z run from today at 500mb and 850mb:




Still pretty far out but Saturday sure holds potential in central Nebraska.

On Sunday, the picture is a bit less clear due to differences in the medium range models. Most WFO's around the plains seem to favor the faster ejection of the trough to the northeast, much like the latest ECMWF runs. The GFS on the other hand shows a slower solution that cuts the low off further from the northern branch of the jet and slowly drifts it towards the southern plains. Here is the GFS 12z from today for 500mb:



I will post details hopefully Thursday night or Friday as to what days I'll be chasing and where.