Update on Major Storm

For the southern portions, tornadow watch #29 has been issued for much of se Texas and sw Louisiana. The largest concern for tornados will likely be from I-10 south to the immedite coastline. Very strong low-level vertical shear (~40kts in lowest 1km per SPC mesoanaylsis ) and very high 0-1km storm relative helicity values (>500m^2/s^2) will favor breif tornado spinups when coupled with the low LCL's in the region.

For the northern side of the storm, heavy snow is falling in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas currently. As the surface low tracks across the Red River Valley today, pockets of heavy snow will likely exist north east of the low.



Here is the latest view of the entire storm system bringing severe storms to TX/LA and snow to KS/OK.

Strong Southern US Storm System for Thursday 31st

A strong winter storm system will bring severe storms to much of the Gulf states while a potent snowstorm will exist to the north from Oklahoma to Michigan. Here's a view of the 500mb map valid for 00z 2-1-08 (Thursday evening).

Decent moisture return will return to the immediate gulf states. Strong vertical wind shear will allow the possibility of severe storms when coupled with marginal instability. High winds will accompany snow north of the surface low.

Strong Winds bring Fence Damage

The very strong winds this morning brought down my fence. Sustained over 40mph and gusts of 55mph did the damage.

A Stormy February?

Medium-Long range forecast models seem to be showing an active storm pattern across the southern and central US for the next few weeks. Depending on the exact tracks, parts of the southern and central plains could experience snow storms to severe weather events. Stay Tuned as February looks to be an active month!

Nor'easter

A fairly quick moving nor'easter will dump some impressive snow amounts across the northeast US starting tonight (1/14) and lasting well into the day on Monday. A surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen just off the coast of the Carolinas and remain offshore as it tracks NNE.


Numerous Winter Weather advisories have been issued for the region as well.


High Precip. forecasts call for heavy snow in a band from New York City NNE up through Massachusetts and southern parts of Maine.



Learn more about Nor'easters... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nor'easter

Outbreak Possible

Surface winds have backed to a southeasterly direction and supercells are erupting in the warm sector. 0-1km helicity values over 350 m^2/s^2 are common over northern Miss. and Alabama. Looks like a few tornadoes are more likely now with the possibility of them being strong. A PDS tornado watch has been issued as well.

Southeast Storms on the 10th

A classic setup for severe storms will likely unfold across the southeast US on the 10th as a large upper trough tracks across the central US interacting with Gulf moisture coming in from the south.



Warm, moist air near the surface coupled with cooling temperatures aloft associated with the upper low will allow moderate destabilization of the atmosphere throughout the day on Thursday (depending on cloud cover too).



Storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day focused on a strong cold front associated with the strong storm system. Another round of stronger, possibly severe storms may fire in the afternoon hours resulting in wind damage, hail, and possibly tornadoes. I think the primary mode of damage will be straight line winds due to the nature of the shear profiles and forcing along the front. Here is a look at SPC's latest outlook. Tomorrow could very well be the 1st Mod. Risk of the year.

Tornado Warnings and Reports

The large storm system effecting the central US has spun up 8 unconfirmed tornados already. Many have been in northern Illinois and in nw Missouri. Here are the latest watches and warnings as of 5pm.



A radar shot shows numerous fast moving cells in Missouri and maybe backbuilding into Oklahoma and Arkansas.



I am a bit surprised that the sfc. winds backed to the south as much as they did across much of the warm sector. This allowed for a more favorable directional shear profile more favorable for tornado producing supercell (especially in the lowest 1km).



There could many more reports of wind , hail, and tornadoes as the night goes on. Here is a link to a news station and a pic of one of the tornadoes from Boone Co. Illinois.... http://www.wifr.com/

January Severe Storms

A few severe t-storm will be possible from Eastern OK, Southern Mizzou, and much of Arkansas beginning late this afternoon and into the evening. Unfortunately, I won't be chasing because of work and not all that excited about storm motions (~45kts) and terrain/road options in the area of interest. Good luck to all going out and I'll have an eye on what's unfolding later this evening.