Friday, March 14, 2008
Heading out the door
Just about to leave. I always leave too damn early. Heading for Woodward to watch data for a long time. Probaly will work north and/or east from there.
Chase Today
Currently I'm still in Norman but plan on heading out to the OK/KS border (Harper/Barber/Woods/Alfalfa county) at about 11am or so. Biggest problem today will be low-level moisture. Deepening sfc low over eastern Colorado will move southeastward and eventually east later today. Hopefully winds will back to an ese direction and pull some decent moisture into the region. Good directional and speed shear will likely exist but moisture is still key. Right now, latest guidance shows 50F Td may be hard to achieve but I will monitor this closely. Still, both high-resolution WRF & NSSL models show cell firing in the above mentioned area around 4pm. I don't expect much in the way of tornado potential but a sculpted supercell would be nice. Will likely follow the storms east after sunset as long as road networks remain good. Will update later, either before leaving or on the road. Good luck to others heading out!
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Thoughts for Friday 14th
Still planning on heading somewhere tomorrow midday. Right now, I am interested in the area from Stillwater to Ponca City as a starting point. Pretty complicated situation but my hopes are that decent moisture will advect back into parts of central/north central Oklahoma by midday due to a deepening surface low taking shape across western OK/TX panhandle. Left exit region of strong upper jet will be crossing the state in the late afternoon and this coupled with hopefully enough convergence along sfc low/frontal intersection may be enough to provide thunderstorm initiation in north central or northeast OK by late afternoon. 12Z NAM simulated reflectivity shows possibility of supercells forming at or near dark in that region then moving east into a favorable environment. Not expecting much at all but I'll be out there if anything exciting does happen.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Upcoming Storm Chases
Friday 14th
Don't know how this event will unfold but I'll be out there regardless. Right now, believing what the NAM is showing, I'll likely be hugging the sfc low across north-central OK into northeast Oklahoma. If the cap is an issue, this area near sfc low and frontal boundary intersection may provide the sufficient lift need to overcome the warm layer when coupled with a strong jet max and decent boundary layer moisture. Still going with current thinking of an area from Ponca City-Stillwater to Bartlesville-Tulsa as a starting point.
Monday 17th
Medium-long range models still with some differences but I am fairly confident I'll be on the plains Monday. Strong western US trough will begin to move east effecting the southern and central plains. Moisture may be a problem but looks like at least 1 full day of good flow off the gulf. No definite target area as of now.
Don't know how this event will unfold but I'll be out there regardless. Right now, believing what the NAM is showing, I'll likely be hugging the sfc low across north-central OK into northeast Oklahoma. If the cap is an issue, this area near sfc low and frontal boundary intersection may provide the sufficient lift need to overcome the warm layer when coupled with a strong jet max and decent boundary layer moisture. Still going with current thinking of an area from Ponca City-Stillwater to Bartlesville-Tulsa as a starting point.
Monday 17th
Medium-long range models still with some differences but I am fairly confident I'll be on the plains Monday. Strong western US trough will begin to move east effecting the southern and central plains. Moisture may be a problem but looks like at least 1 full day of good flow off the gulf. No definite target area as of now.
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