Monday, November 19, 2007

Cold for Thanksgiving

Some of the coldest air of the season will spill into the plains on Wednesday as a strong upper level storm establishes itself across the central US. 12Z NAM/WRF from this morning shows a cold air mass in place for Thanksgiving day.

The cold air will stay in place through the weekend while another storm may take shape in the southwest US. Depending on how this storm ejects to the east, there will be a chance for a round of wintry precip on the southern plains in the Fri/Sat/Sun (23-25) timeframe. Here's a graphic from Lubbock NWS.

ECMWF for Sat. morning shows the 500 hPa vort max situated over Arizona, a much slower solution than the GFS. Track of this low will be important for any snowfall throughout the region.



Locations in the eastern OK panhandle will likely see cold temps throughout the week with highs struggling to hit 40F. The coldest mornings seem to be Thursday and Friday mornings as widespread upper teens could be a reality. Very slight chance of a snow flurry or two Wednesday morning but a higher chance of some wintry precip may come later in the week (23-25) with the associated storm system mentioned above. Still a lot of details to pinpoint before a quality forecast could be made though.

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