After losing power for about 80 hours, I'm back up and running now. Not too many changes to the site or my blog but its winter and I'm lazy. I'll try to get a report up on the Dec. 8-10 ice storm here in central OK but it may take a while. In the mean time, back to making some more money before spending it all on gas this spring. The blog and the website will likely be updated frequently starting around March so check back often come spring.
Also, the next 7 days will present quite a few oppurtunities for light snow here in central Oklahoma. Check out Norman's WFO for more info.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Round one of ice, Another to follow
Here are a few pics of the ice from early this morning...
The freezing line moved south overnight and a band of heavy freezing rain developed. Here a radar pic showing the convective banding feature this morning.
More to come later with possibly a heavier event going into tomorrow.
The freezing line moved south overnight and a band of heavy freezing rain developed. Here a radar pic showing the convective banding feature this morning.
More to come later with possibly a heavier event going into tomorrow.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Winter Storm to affect the Southern Plains
A large upper level storm system will move in from the west in different pieces over the next few days affecting much of the southern plains bringing ice and snow to a large area. OUN has issued a freezing rain advisory for tonight with the first round of precip expected.
There will likely be a break in the activity on Sunday during the the day and into the evening but another round of possibly heavier precip is expected on Monday. Here is a graphic from NWS Lubbock depicting the situation.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center paints a picture with high QPF amounts and a good chance of accumulating ice for Monday.
The reason for ice rather than snow for much of the region is the depth of the shallow air. A warm layer above the surface (~850mb) will persist as the shallow subfreezing artic air works its way in underneath this warm layer. Here's the sounding from Norman, OK this morning showing the large temperature inversion and the cold layer just near the surface.
There will likely be a break in the activity on Sunday during the the day and into the evening but another round of possibly heavier precip is expected on Monday. Here is a graphic from NWS Lubbock depicting the situation.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center paints a picture with high QPF amounts and a good chance of accumulating ice for Monday.
The reason for ice rather than snow for much of the region is the depth of the shallow air. A warm layer above the surface (~850mb) will persist as the shallow subfreezing artic air works its way in underneath this warm layer. Here's the sounding from Norman, OK this morning showing the large temperature inversion and the cold layer just near the surface.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Cold for Thanksgiving
Some of the coldest air of the season will spill into the plains on Wednesday as a strong upper level storm establishes itself across the central US. 12Z NAM/WRF from this morning shows a cold air mass in place for Thanksgiving day.
The cold air will stay in place through the weekend while another storm may take shape in the southwest US. Depending on how this storm ejects to the east, there will be a chance for a round of wintry precip on the southern plains in the Fri/Sat/Sun (23-25) timeframe. Here's a graphic from Lubbock NWS.
ECMWF for Sat. morning shows the 500 hPa vort max situated over Arizona, a much slower solution than the GFS. Track of this low will be important for any snowfall throughout the region.
ECMWF:
GFS:
Locations in the eastern OK panhandle will likely see cold temps throughout the week with highs struggling to hit 40F. The coldest mornings seem to be Thursday and Friday mornings as widespread upper teens could be a reality. Very slight chance of a snow flurry or two Wednesday morning but a higher chance of some wintry precip may come later in the week (23-25) with the associated storm system mentioned above. Still a lot of details to pinpoint before a quality forecast could be made though.
The cold air will stay in place through the weekend while another storm may take shape in the southwest US. Depending on how this storm ejects to the east, there will be a chance for a round of wintry precip on the southern plains in the Fri/Sat/Sun (23-25) timeframe. Here's a graphic from Lubbock NWS.
ECMWF for Sat. morning shows the 500 hPa vort max situated over Arizona, a much slower solution than the GFS. Track of this low will be important for any snowfall throughout the region.
ECMWF:
GFS:
Locations in the eastern OK panhandle will likely see cold temps throughout the week with highs struggling to hit 40F. The coldest mornings seem to be Thursday and Friday mornings as widespread upper teens could be a reality. Very slight chance of a snow flurry or two Wednesday morning but a higher chance of some wintry precip may come later in the week (23-25) with the associated storm system mentioned above. Still a lot of details to pinpoint before a quality forecast could be made though.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Cold on the Way
A quick post to notify those interested in the storm system that will dig into the intermountain west during the week of Thanksgiving. Snow is quite possible on the front range and into western Kansas and maybe even TX/OK panhandle. Right now I won't go into much detail as the models are still in disagreement. I'll post a lengthy post about what I see over the weekend when hopefully my early forecast will be fine tuned. In the mean time, I think DDC forecast office sums up the situation pretty well as of now:
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
SOME AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO COME ASHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE A JUST A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF DIGGING SOUTHWARD
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE
MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DEEP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW. THE GFS CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AS WELL BUT INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND LESS POSITIVELY TILTED. THE MODELS
REALLY BEGIN TO SPLIT APART BY DAY SEVEN WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF AND OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS BUT A LITTLE SLOWER. REGARDLESS, EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
PICK UP IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS THIS FAR OUT WITH
TIMING BEING AN ISSUE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS RUN AND 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES COLDER LOW AND MID
LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 0(C) BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW OVER
THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS 24-48 HOURS BEHIND AND TRACKS THE LOW A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP GOING POPS AND WEATHER TYPE DUE TO
THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DDC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
SOME AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO COME ASHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE A JUST A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF DIGGING SOUTHWARD
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE
MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DEEP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW. THE GFS CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AS WELL BUT INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND LESS POSITIVELY TILTED. THE MODELS
REALLY BEGIN TO SPLIT APART BY DAY SEVEN WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF AND OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS BUT A LITTLE SLOWER. REGARDLESS, EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
PICK UP IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS THIS FAR OUT WITH
TIMING BEING AN ISSUE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS RUN AND 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES COLDER LOW AND MID
LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 0(C) BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW OVER
THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS 24-48 HOURS BEHIND AND TRACKS THE LOW A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP GOING POPS AND WEATHER TYPE DUE TO
THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DDC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
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