Cap is dominating, SFC based storms unlikely before dark
A strong inversion exists on the 21Z MPX sounding with -274 J/kg of Mixed Layer CINH (convective inhibition) present. Surface based storms will likely not fire until near or after dark if at all. I am glad I didn't make the trip as this was one of my biggest concerns.
The latest MD issued by the SPC states the same thing: ....POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH APPEARS LIMITED...BUT THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.