March 28th Video

A quick snow accumulation

Here's Trevor in the snow from this afternoon...

Updates & Winter this Week

After losing power for about 80 hours, I'm back up and running now. Not too many changes to the site or my blog but its winter and I'm lazy. I'll try to get a report up on the Dec. 8-10 ice storm here in central OK but it may take a while. In the mean time, back to making some more money before spending it all on gas this spring. The blog and the website will likely be updated frequently starting around March so check back often come spring.

Also, the next 7 days will present quite a few oppurtunities for light snow here in central Oklahoma. Check out Norman's WFO for more info.

Round one of ice, Another to follow

Here are a few pics of the ice from early this morning...


The freezing line moved south overnight and a band of heavy freezing rain developed. Here a radar pic showing the convective banding feature this morning.


More to come later with possibly a heavier event going into tomorrow.

Winter Storm to affect the Southern Plains

A large upper level storm system will move in from the west in different pieces over the next few days affecting much of the southern plains bringing ice and snow to a large area. OUN has issued a freezing rain advisory for tonight with the first round of precip expected.

There will likely be a break in the activity on Sunday during the the day and into the evening but another round of possibly heavier precip is expected on Monday. Here is a graphic from NWS Lubbock depicting the situation.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center paints a picture with high QPF amounts and a good chance of accumulating ice for Monday.

The reason for ice rather than snow for much of the region is the depth of the shallow air. A warm layer above the surface (~850mb) will persist as the shallow subfreezing artic air works its way in underneath this warm layer. Here's the sounding from Norman, OK this morning showing the large temperature inversion and the cold layer just near the surface.

Cold for Thanksgiving

Some of the coldest air of the season will spill into the plains on Wednesday as a strong upper level storm establishes itself across the central US. 12Z NAM/WRF from this morning shows a cold air mass in place for Thanksgiving day.




The cold air will stay in place through the weekend while another storm may take shape in the southwest US. Depending on how this storm ejects to the east, there will be a chance for a round of wintry precip on the southern plains in the Fri/Sat/Sun (23-25) timeframe. Here's a graphic from Lubbock NWS.



ECMWF for Sat. morning shows the 500 hPa vort max situated over Arizona, a much slower solution than the GFS. Track of this low will be important for any snowfall throughout the region.

ECMWF:

GFS:

Locations in the eastern OK panhandle will likely see cold temps throughout the week with highs struggling to hit 40F. The coldest mornings seem to be Thursday and Friday mornings as widespread upper teens could be a reality. Very slight chance of a snow flurry or two Wednesday morning but a higher chance of some wintry precip may come later in the week (23-25) with the associated storm system mentioned above. Still a lot of details to pinpoint before a quality forecast could be made though.

Cold on the Way

A quick post to notify those interested in the storm system that will dig into the intermountain west during the week of Thanksgiving. Snow is quite possible on the front range and into western Kansas and maybe even TX/OK panhandle. Right now I won't go into much detail as the models are still in disagreement. I'll post a lengthy post about what I see over the weekend when hopefully my early forecast will be fine tuned. In the mean time, I think DDC forecast office sums up the situation pretty well as of now:

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
SOME AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO COME ASHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE A JUST A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF DIGGING SOUTHWARD
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE
MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DEEP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW. THE GFS CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AS WELL BUT INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND LESS POSITIVELY TILTED. THE MODELS
REALLY BEGIN TO SPLIT APART BY DAY SEVEN WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF AND OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS BUT A LITTLE SLOWER. REGARDLESS, EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
PICK UP IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS THIS FAR OUT WITH
TIMING BEING AN ISSUE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS RUN AND 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES COLDER LOW AND MID
LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 0(C) BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW OVER
THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS 24-48 HOURS BEHIND AND TRACKS THE LOW A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP GOING POPS AND WEATHER TYPE DUE TO
THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DDC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Boring Warm November so far

Not much to talk about with the quite weather pattern we've been in. Some medium-long range models are hinting at a more active pattern including some potentially cold air for the central and southern plains along with much of the east. Other than that, I've had plenty of time to think of new ideas for my website, www.capturethestorm.com , including a video section and some timelapse video segments. I'll have plenty of time in December to work on those types of things.

Sam

Severe Outbreak Wednesday

Won't go into much detail as I'm low on time but a potent setup may unfold Wednesday 17th across much of the southern plains. Tornadoes are a good possibility with the great low-level shear values associated with the system. This will definately not be an easy chase with storm motions around 40kts and a bad road network. A lot has to unfold right though for this event to live up to some hype its already getting so I'll leave it at that. In the mean time, here's what OUN and SPC are saying:





...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS. AND...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 40-50+ KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

Large Gustnado captured in W. Oklahoma

I documented a large gustnado near Roosevelt, OK on Sunday the 14th. This 'swirl' was located on the outflow boundary of a HP hybrid type supercell around 6pm. There was definite cyclonic rotation there before it got to the road but the storm was definatley not associated with any type of mesocyclone. There is a debate as if this was a weak tornado and the news stations all called it a tornado so who knows. It looked pretty weet though. I'll hopefully have a full report up on my webpage, www.capturethestorm.com , within a week or so. Hopefully I'll have the video up in the near future.

Plains Storm Chase this Weekend

It looks at though this weekend (10/13-10/14) may present some chasing opportunities. I don't want to get overly excited or anything especially after what happened last weekend but the potential is there. Hopefully I'll get one last taste of a nice supercell before the long winter sets in. I'll update either Saturday or Sunday morning as to where I might be headed.

Severe Episode Possible this Weekend

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (5th-7th) all have potential to be good chase days across the plains as a large western trough will slowly move east. Large model discrepancies past Saturday night keep Sunday's potential a question mark at this time. Friday, I will not be able to chase due to previous arrangements but the bulk of the action may be elevated north of a retreating front in Nebraska/S. Dakota because of a stout cap. If storms can fire along the boundary or in the warm sector, there's a chance they could produce tornadoes due to sufficient instability coupled with great shear.

Saturday, looks to be potentially a big day depending on timing of the associated lift in the mid levels as well as any jet streaks rounding the base of the trough. Again, the cap will be strong but it appears there will be enough forcing to overcome it. Below is the NAM/WRF 12z run from today at 500mb and 850mb:




Still pretty far out but Saturday sure holds potential in central Nebraska.

On Sunday, the picture is a bit less clear due to differences in the medium range models. Most WFO's around the plains seem to favor the faster ejection of the trough to the northeast, much like the latest ECMWF runs. The GFS on the other hand shows a slower solution that cuts the low off further from the northern branch of the jet and slowly drifts it towards the southern plains. Here is the GFS 12z from today for 500mb:



I will post details hopefully Thursday night or Friday as to what days I'll be chasing and where.

Tornado Video from Cape Coral, FL

Severe Chances Next Week?

Some ensembles are hinting at SW mid/upper-level flow going into next week. First chances are Mon/Tues with a weaker western trough possibly ejecting out into the northern plains. Another trough is forecast to develop later in the week but now some members are cutting-off the low from the mean flow. If it would eject out next weekend sometime (9/21-9/23) it could bring a favorable setup for severe storms on the plains. Will post updates if it looks like a chase may occur within the next week or so.

T.S. Humberto to make landfall between Galveston and High Island, TX

Just a quick update...

Here's a link to Galveston NWS update page.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/graph_haz/graphicastHGX1.php

Here's a view of Humberto on radar (5:34pm).

Cool Night Ahead

I guess I'm just excited about the first of the 50's F this year. The cold frontal passage occurred yesterday evening (9/10) accompanied with low dewpoints and gusty north winds. Tonight into tomorrow morning, conditions favor relatively good radiational cooling. Dewpoints around the state are in the mid 40's to lower 50's F so I expect the temperature to mimic those pretty closely. Here's what the weather service thinks...

Old Lightning Pics

Its been a while since we've had a good t-storm here in Norman so I thought I would post some of these to ease the pain.

I am still hopeful that the fall season will present one or two more storm chases before 07' is over. After that, I'm ready for winter and all it has to offer. I still plan to chase a blizzard if the opportunity presents itself while I'm out of school. Here are some winter storms I've experienced.

http://www.capturethestorm.com/(winter)12-1-06.htm

http://www.capturethestorm.com/(winter)1-12-07.htm

Hurricane Felix now a Category 4

http://www.capturethestorm.com

As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Felix is now a Cat. 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph. Hurricane hunters found the lowest pressure to be 956mb. The storm should continue its westward track with slight wobbles to the north and eventually effect Honduras and Belize as a major hurricane.

Cap is dominating, SFC based storms unlikely before dark

A strong inversion exists on the 21Z MPX sounding with -274 J/kg of Mixed Layer CINH (convective inhibition) present. Surface based storms will likely not fire until near or after dark if at all. I am glad I didn't make the trip as this was one of my biggest concerns.

The latest MD issued by the SPC states the same thing: ....POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH APPEARS LIMITED...BUT THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

Tornadoes in ND, Severe Weather likely again Tomorrow

Multiple tornado reports are coming in from North Dakota this evening. A line of isolated supercells erupted this afternoon ahead of a cold front in central ND and spread east into a primed environment for tornadoes. Here's a picture of the report locations for today.

Severe weather is likely again tomorrow, Monday August 27th, across ND,SD,MN, IA, and NE as the cold front continues its southward march. A strong cap may limit coverage but the forcing along the cold front coupled with the timing of the upper air disturbance may be enough to break through the inversion before nightfall. A surface low is forecast to move from central SD northeastward through Minnesota possibly backing surface winds and enhancing hodographs. The LLJ is forecast to be quite strong, 40-50kts, just after 00z making for impressive low-level shear values. Unfortunately I can't chase tomorrow due to school, the tough semester, but I'll keep an eye on it and I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two reported tomorrow.

Gorilla Hail in South Dakota

This picture was taken in Dante South Dakota on the 21st of August after a classic supercell ripped through the region. Official reports of 4.25" diameter hail were recorded with "unofficial" hailstones reportedly in the 6-8" diameter range.

New pic from Hurricane Dean

http://www.capturethestorm.com/

Picture of Hurricane Dean taken by shuttle Endeavor near peak intensity in the Caribbean Sea.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/HurricaneDean.jpg

Severe storms along cold front rest of this week.

http://www.capturethestorm.com/

A cold front dragging through the central US will present a focus for severe weather opportunities the rest of this week as it drags slowly south. Fairly zonal, mid level flow of 30 - 50 kts atop the frontal location coupled a decent LLJ the next couple of days could set the stage for numerous hail and wind report along with some isolated tornadoes wherever storms can stay discrete and not get undercut by the front.
Threat locations:
Tuesday 21st - Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, northern Kansas, Iowa
Wednesday 22nd - much of Iowa and Nebraska, eastern Colorado, northern Kansas
Thursday 23rd - Mainly Kansas and eastern Colorado

Severe Weather Possible this Afternoon

A remnant surface trough / dryline will interact with a nearly stationary surface boundary located over extreme eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. 40-50kts of deep layer shear exists which is ample for supercells along with isolated tornadoes possible given the low level directional shear in place.

EHI values, which is measured by the amount of CAPE and storm relative helicity (in this case the lowest 1km), are above 5 for eastern Nebraska. In general, 0-1km EHI's above 2 can support a decent tornado threat.

A weather watch, possibly a tornado watch, may be needed later this afternoon for the affected areas.

Tropical Depression Erin restrengthens over Oklahoma

The remnants of TD Erin has intensified overnight bringing massive flooding, multiple high wind reports, and a couple of tornadoes. HPC is now issuing advisories on the event. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/tcpat5.html

Here are some of the rainfall totals for the past 24 hours:

Over 9" in 24 hrs at Fort Cobb, over 5" at Norman. Like I said, there is widespread flooding and river are beginning to overflow their banks.

A Break from the Heat

Some tropical air mass type thunderstorms have brought some much appreciated rain and cooler temperatures to Oklahoma today. The storms are associated with the remnants of Tropical depression Erin which is still spinning in northwest Texas and moving northeastward. Here are a few pics form Norman.

DEAN's forecast track shifted slightly north; may effect Texas

NHC "cone of uncertainty" has shifted a bit further north and the average path would now take Dean over the northern tip of the Yucatan. Of course the less time over the Peninsula would mean Dean would likely stay strong as it emerges back into the Gulf. Here's a look at the track from this morning's update.

The consensus among some of the tropical models has been a bit further north as well; except for GFS and CMC which have been staying to the south. Here is a look at this morning's GFDL run which could spell big trouble if it verified.

TS Erin: Heavy Rain and possible Tornadoes for the Texas Coast

Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the Texas coast as TS Erin is set to make landfall sometime Thursday near Corpus Christi, TX. The threat of localized flooding is present with QPF's around 7'' near the Corpus / Port Aransas region.

Brief, weak tornadoes are possible beginning tonight and going into the day on Thursday from and area near Galveston south along the coast to about Corpus Christi. The moist, unstable tropical air mass will be in place along with favorable wind profiles in this region to support isolated tropical type funnels, waterspouts, and weak tornadoes. SPC has just raised their tornado probabilities in the latest outlook.

Soon to Be TS Dean, Trouble in Gulf as well

The tropical disturbance in the Atlantic will soon become TS Dean but we have a while to watch it being so far away.

Of more importance now is the possible development of Tropical Depression in the Gulf. Invest 91L is just north of the Yucatan and some models forecast it to hit the Texas coast as a TS or a weak hurricane.

More in depth updates tonight....

Invest 90L

From the National Hurricane Center:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Another area to monitor is the Caribbean where widespread convection is found this morning. Shear over the area isn't the most favorable but if there is enough low level convergence, a low level circulation could form.

Hurricane Season is here

Models are beginning to show increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin over the next few weeks. Not to say one model will verify over another, but the consensus of the upcoming pattern is quite similar. Above, NAM shows a system located near the Yucitan peninsula. Below, the CMC has had a similar feature for a couple of runs now.

The GFS on the other hand, does not pick up on this potential system but has been consistent with something developing off the African coast sometime next week.

A look at the Atlantic Basin now shows some convection in the Carribean and some convergence along about 10N.

I wouldn't give up on this season at all. Things may just be getting started and I would almost bet on seeing another named system within the next two weeks.

Possible Chase Friday 10th

A series of shortwaves have been making there way through the northern plains with a stronger one forecast to move thorugh the Dakotas Friday afternoon/evening. The differences in the timing among the models is the only thing that concerns me. Both the GFS and NAM show good instability and deep layer shear for supercells with the NAM forecasting very high, low-level shear values enhancing the overall tornado threat if it verifies. I might be making this trip so stay tuned. Early target would be somewhere near Euraka - Aberdeen, SD.