Thursday, March 13, 2008
Thoughts for Friday 14th
Still planning on heading somewhere tomorrow midday. Right now, I am interested in the area from Stillwater to Ponca City as a starting point. Pretty complicated situation but my hopes are that decent moisture will advect back into parts of central/north central Oklahoma by midday due to a deepening surface low taking shape across western OK/TX panhandle. Left exit region of strong upper jet will be crossing the state in the late afternoon and this coupled with hopefully enough convergence along sfc low/frontal intersection may be enough to provide thunderstorm initiation in north central or northeast OK by late afternoon. 12Z NAM simulated reflectivity shows possibility of supercells forming at or near dark in that region then moving east into a favorable environment. Not expecting much at all but I'll be out there if anything exciting does happen.