Don't know how this event will unfold but I'll be out there regardless. Right now, believing what the NAM is showing, I'll likely be hugging the sfc low across north-central OK into northeast Oklahoma. If the cap is an issue, this area near sfc low and frontal boundary intersection may provide the sufficient lift need to overcome the warm layer when coupled with a strong jet max and decent boundary layer moisture. Still going with current thinking of an area from Ponca City-Stillwater to Bartlesville-Tulsa as a starting point.
Medium-long range models still with some differences but I am fairly confident I'll be on the plains Monday. Strong western US trough will begin to move east effecting the southern and central plains. Moisture may be a problem but looks like at least 1 full day of good flow off the gulf. No definite target area as of now.