Tornado Footage to air on Storm Chasers

It's been a while since I've posted here but I was contacted by Discovery Channel during the summer about some tornado footage I shot back on April 23, 2008. They were interested in the film for a show called Storm Chasers which will begin in late October. Anyways, they decided to show my footage in Episode 4 which will air on Nov. 9 at 10 p.m. ET/PT. There might be more footage used in later episodes but that has yet to be determined.

Some Updates

Got most of my chase reports and accounts done. Might do more this summer when I'm bored.
I have some non-tornado pics from 2008 up here: http://www.capturethestorm.com/photos2008.htm

Not much else going on weather wise for me. High plains will likely see storms for a few days to come. Hopefully one or two more chases before summer comes to an end.

Back to the High Plains

Me and Sean Waugh are headed to Liberal, KS this morning and will re-evaluate from there. Hoping for a nice lone supercell.

June 15th Update

A few days of NW flow events for the plains will take place today through at least Wednesday 18th. I'll watch closely and head out locally (TX panhandle/OK) if it looks good enough. Right now either Monday or Tuesday could be a go.

On website, I'm way behind on chase logs but will try to update them here within a few weeks as things look to be slowing down. Also, I'll probably add some short video of some of the other chases.

Sitting in Wichita, KS

Looks like one last opportunity for a while.
A cold front is moving through the southern plains and is forecast to stall just north of the OK/KS border later this afternoon. Good moisture and instability in place as well as deep-layer shear. Some supercells are possible later this evening mainly across southeast KS but I'll likely stay in the Wichita area and wait for a tail-end storm hopefully go before dark.

Tornadoes Across much of IA/NE/KS/MN

Today was a tough chase with some rain-wrapped mesos but I managed to get at least one tornado in northwest IA and got some good storm structure pics as well. Very sad situation in northwest IA as well as tornado hit boy scout camp killing 4 and injuring many more.

One Last Update

Sitting in Missouri Valley, IA, just north of Omaha currently. Upper level clouds are starting to thin east of cold front. There's a nice overlay of CAPE & 0-1km helicity in this general region. Stronger dynamics might exist further north across northern IA this afternoon while stouter CAPE profiles might be nice around se NE, sw IA, ne KS. Probably sit here a while and wait for new mesonanalysis runs. If clouds clear out and sfc heating gets going north of here, I might go to Denison, IA and re-evaluate. Another option would be to wait here and play something further south of Omaha later this afternoon.

Stopped in Lincoln, NE

I was gonna head to Omaha then north but leftover convection has left lower temps in northwest IA along with an area of lower dewpoints. Winds back nicely to the southeast north of here all the way to the sfc low in SD but right now I just don't see anything worth hauling up north just yet. Skinny tongue of CAPE nosing though eastern NE into se SD right now but strong cap holding tight. Helicity and low level flow looks good just about everywhere up here as well. I might be seeing a couple of leftover boundaries on vis sat, radar, sfc obs: one south of Sioux City, IA stretching west to east and possibly another from southwest IA northwestward through Omaha. Hopefully the picture can become more clear pretty soon.

Decent Chance for Tornadoes Today

I'm still in York, NE early this morning looking over latest stuff. If the convection in western/northwest IA could clear off soon, I would like that area later this afternoon. Another problem in that area later today is that all back roads will be muddy as crap. Much of Nebraska will have plenty of time to recover from early morning storms that rolled through but directional shear may not be as good as spots further northeast. If I decide to head north, area from Sioux City-Fort Dodge-Spencer IA looks good for starting. Another plan may just be to sit here for a while, maybe move to Lincoln, NE. More later...

North Again!

Leaving for York, NE here this afternoon. I'll likely stay there tonight and decide where to go on Wednesday. I'm eyeing a northern target of se SD, western IA, ne NE, or sw MN. If this area does not look like its gonna happen tomorrow, I'll likely just stay put in York for a while and try the area of southern NE, north-central KS. More from Nebraska tonight or early tomorrow AM.

Next Chase Wednesday 11th

I can't make it out today to TX panhandle/western OK so I'm already watching my next chasing opportunity coming by mid week. GFS/NAM/ECMWF all in general agreement of bringing nice trough through the central and northern US on Wed. A bit far out for details but the overall pattern looks nice.

12 wRF/NAM forecast Wed. evening

500mb

850mb

Still No June Tornado

I still have seen no tornadoes in the month of June since I have started chasing. The past two chases in Nebraska on the 4th and Kansas on the 5th I came very close but no luck.

Looks like some interesting setups on the GFS and NAM for the next week so hopefully I can end my drought.

Back on the Plains

Currently in Salina, KS looking over stuff for what seems to be a tough call on where to go today. Will likely stay here a bit longer before I make a decision though. I'll stay somewhere in KS tonight and get ready for an active day tomorrow.

May 23rd Videos Up

Videos from the 3rd and 4th Tornadoes of this day.
All videos are shot in HD but compressed for YouTube.



Reports from May 21st through the 26th are still a work in progress. I should have at least a few done by tomorrow evening. Another couple of chase days look to be coming up starting Wed and Thursday.

Back in OK Soon

I'll be heading back into Oklahoma the morning of June 1st. Looks like an active period awaits me when I return back there as well. A few days off to update website then a couple of chase days possible come mid-late next week.

Heading Back to TX

I'm currently driving to Houston, TX for a couple days back home and a wedding I have to attend. Hopefully I won't miss too many good chase days while I'm gone. I'll get home on the last day of May and be ready for anything after that.

Our 6-day chase vacation was awesome. We chased and traveled through Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Colorado while on the plains. We viewed at least 6 tornadoes throughout the week, two of which were strong tornadoes including an EF-4 in western KS on the 23rd. It will likely be a while before all of my chase reports are up online but check back in a week or so. Will post again later...

Last Day of Chase Vacation

Today is our last chase and we will likely target areas near Dodge City and south to the OK/KS border. Right now I'm in DDC and will likely hold tight for a while and then decide if we need to move south at all.

A Couple of Brief Tornadoes in KS again Today

One of two weak tornadoes we viewed today. This was just southeast of LaCrosse, KS.

One last chase day tomorrow to cap off six straight chase days in the plains. Heading back to Norman on Tuesday and will watch for some local storms.

West on I-70

We are driving west on I-70 right now just west of Salina, KS. Looking to go to either Hays or Wakeeney then maybe drop south to Ness City or Dodge City. May sit tight along 70 though, not sure yet.

Getting Ready for another Chase Day

Not an easy forecast today but I'll likely head down back into Kansas for today and be in position to chase down there again tomorrow.

Nice Storms in Eastern Nebraska

Saw a few decent storms in eastern Nebraska today. Got some great supercell structure shots and viewed a funnel/brief tornado southwest of Norfolk, NE as well.

I'm currently in Lincoln Nebraska and will try to get some more rest before chasing again tomorrow in this general area.

Eastern Nebraska Target Today

Currently sitting in Hebron, NE looking over latest stuff. I will likely try to stay in southeast Nebraska and hope for some isolated storms to fire and try to catch the tail-end storm. Not sure if we will be chasing tomorrow or not, we'll be making that decision later tonight or tomorrow morning.

--For those trying to contact me--
AT&T has horible coverage in this area so I have no cell signal

Heading into southeast Nebraska

Currently north of Salina, KS driving north with an initial stop in Hebron or York Nebraska. If the RUC model is close to correct, could be a decent chase day.

Historic Tornado Outbreak

I viewed 4 tornadoes this afternoon and evening including a large long-track wedge in Gove county that we followed from start to finish for nearly 40 minutes. Next tornado was a large wedge that developed right on top of us on 147 southwest of Cedar Bluff Resevoir. This developing wedge was within 100 yards as it moved parallel to us as we raced north on 147 trying to get to safety. Wasn't able to get east of it but just glad we got out of there safely.

EDIT: here are just a few pics of the destrucitve tornadoes we viewed today. More pics and video in the next few days...

Friday morning

Sitting in Wakeeney. Looking over latest data. More later....

Tornadoes in Kansas

My dad and I viewed at least two tornadoes in western Kansas this afternoon and evening. A difficult chase but an action packed day. Currently in Hays, KS again and will crash here tonight where we will get ready for another chase day in this same general area.

Heading into Kansas

We're about to leave Burlington and drive east into Kansas. Probaly will stop in Oakely or Wakeeney and go from there. Should be an interesting day...

Lots of Lightning

We chased a few severe thunderstorms in northeast and eastern Colorado this afternoon. Most were high based and produced some strong winds and a great lightning display near and after dark. Currently, we're in Burlington CO where we'll stay the night before heading into Kansas tomorrow. More from the road tomorrow...

In Sidney, NE

Sitting in Sidney, NE looking over latest data. Still thinking of playing southeast Wyoming or possibly northeast Colorado. Cirrus clouds are beginning to clear and I would expect something to get interesting by 4pm or so.

Quick Update

Made it here to Hays, KS and will leave early tomorrow morning and leave for Sydney or Scottsbluff Nebraska where we may get another hotel room before crossing the border into eastern Wyoming. Area from Cheyenne to Lusk, WY looks good for some nice supercells Wednesday afternoon. After that, a stay in the Nebraska panhandle then an early morning leave back into northern Kansas for a nice looking setup on Thursday. This is may all change so stay tuned for day-to-day updates.

About to Depart...

Plan is to leave here just after noon and make it to Hays, KS where we will spend the night. Off to southeast Wyoming or extreme northeast Colorado on Wednesday before a stretch of possibly big chase days on Thursday and Friday. More from Kansas later.

High Plains Chasing Late this Week

A large upper trough is forecast to develop in the western US beginning around Tuesday and lasting throughout the weekend. Evolution of the upper air pattern and associated surface features will be hard to accurately forecast more than a day or so out but the overall pattern suggest a few days of severe weather beginning Wednesday or Thursday. My plan as of now is to leave Tuesday evening and get to eastern Wyoming or northwest Nebraska by Wednesday evening where there is a chance of severe storms. More to come on Tuesday or Wednesday when I'm on the road. I 'll be updating often throughout the weekend as to what my chasing plans are and any reports as well.

Widespread Severe Storms Possible across Southern Plains

Looks like another fairly significant severe weather day across much of se Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, north Texas and points eastward. Main threat will likely be large hail but a few tornadoes seem likely. I'll definitely be chasing this event so stay tuned for updates.

Upcoming Storm on May 13th

After a tough chase on the 10th where i intercepted a brief tornado in northern Latimer Co. OK, there seems to be another setup I'll be chasing on Tuesday. Won't go into details much but it appears it could be a decent chase day. Not sure of tornado potential but some nice supercells are definitely possible.

Chase Currently Underway

I'm in Sallisaw, OK right now looking over latest data. Warm front is slowly lifting north and will hopefully be near I-40 later this afternoon. Its gonna be a difficult chase today with storm motions and terrain but I bet there may be a decent number of tornadoes reported across the southern plains into the southeast.

Severe T-storms Return to the Plains

Thunderstorm chances increase early this week as a storm system approaches form the west. The high plains of western Kansas southward through west Texas will be the focus for the highest risk of severe storms on Monday 5th and Tuesday 6th as a dryline sharpens up during the afternoon hours. The upper storm system kicks east on Tuesday night into Wednesday and t-storm chances spread east with it. I can't chase today due to finals but Tuesday and/or Wednesday look like the bigger days right now. On Tuesday, I would not be able to leave until 3pm or so due to finals but I may head west toward the TX panhandle if it looks like its worth taking the risk. Wednesday will mark my last day of finals and a chase to go along with it although I'm not too impressed with the setup right now.

Night Tornado in Oklahoma

Sean, Brandon , and I witnessed a night time tornado and observed multiple power flashes in Osage county Oklahoma last night. I'll hopefully have pics and a full report up sometime soon.

EDIT.... Better pic here: http://learn.ou.edu/pages/personal/72118/5108_osage1_large.JPG

Focus on Thursday, May 1st

Looks like a potential outbreak of severe weather if the latest GFS and ECMWF runs are anything close to accurate. Anywhere from eastern Nebraska/western Iowa south to northeast Oklahoma are areas of interest. I won't go into much detail until the NAM gets ahold of things.

Tornado in west TX

Report from Wednesday's chase here:

http://www.capturethestorm.com/42308.htm

First attempt at Lightning

A pic from the house of a storm that went up late yesterday evening. Looking south from Norman...

Threat for Supercells in OK/KS Late this Evening

Looks like at least a decent shot of storms very late today anywhere form Clinton, OK northeast to about Wichita, KS. Marginal shear profiles but high instability will likely exist over much of this region later today. Any storm that is able to form late this evening (if any) will likely exhibit supercell characteristics and contain large hail. I might head to Guthrie or El Reno later today and decide what to do from there.

Thursday 17th

Me and Sean observed a few marginally severe storms in central OK yesterday.

Looks like at least a small chance of a chase in the southern plains sometime during the middle of next week. After that, April might be done with and May is just around the corner...

Southern Plains Storms - Thursday 17th

Fairly nice 500mb trough will cross through the southern plains tomorrow, 17th. Decent gulf moisture is making its way back north today and will continue to advect into tomorrow. Surface low, along ne-sw oriented cold-front, forming in the TX panhandle will move east then northeast through central OK on Thursday. This may help back sfc winds to an east-southeasterly direction ahead of quickly approaching cold front. 850mb winds are generally out of the sw today and much of tomorrow contributing to a warm layer that will prevent thunderstorm develop until later in the afternoon Thursday when the 500mb trough moves east. Depicted by the NAM/WRF, there is some low-level directional shear but mostly unidirectional from 850mb on up. Chase target tomorrow, if I choose to go out, will likely be in the Norman-Chandler-Shawnee area as a starting point.

http://www.wxcaster.com/weather.php3

Update

Thursday 17th setup doesn't look too promising.

Early next week (April 20-23) looks very interesting with a nice western US trough looking to develop in that time frame. Good gulf moisture looks to be in place across the plains as well. Future model runs should help pinpoint what days will be the focus.

Upcoming Pattern

Looks to be fairly slow for the plains for at least the next week. Longwave trough moves east and sets up over eastern coast resulting in northwest flow for the plains and surface highs likely making it all the way into the gulf shutting off moisture for a while. There are some hints of moisture return and western US trough beginning around Thursday April 17th on the GFS and ECMWF.

Wednesday

Heading out the door for what looks to be another chase in north west TX. Will post more later....

Large Tornado captured in NW TX

Brandon McClung, Sean Waugh, Cassie Wingate and I witnessed at least one tornado today. Report coming later on webpage but here are a few video stills...

Monday Chase in Western OK

I'll be out again tomorrow and again in western OK likely. Not going to spend alot of time other than to say it looks good for a couple tornadoes....

Thursday Results / Chase coming Monday likely

We got on a few good storms in north Texas on Thursday and spotted a very brief funnel associated with a ragged, low wall cloud a few miles west of Scotland, TX. Very large hail was reported north of Scotland but we stayed out of it for the most part only running into golfballs.

Looks like another chase is in the works for Monday. Details still need to be cleared out but there is plenty of time for that.

Chase on Thursday April 3rd

I'll keep this short as I'm busy trying to study for two tests today and tomorrow morning. All things still looks good for a decent severe weather event on Thursday evening throughout the Red River Valley. Doesn't look like the perfect setup to me but definitely worth going after.

Monday Results

Got some intense supercell action in south central and southeast OK again on Monday. Up to tennis ball hail on those storms today. We were on a couple of tornado warned cells that just didn't have enough to produce.

Here are a few hail pics from between Davis and Sulphur..

Yesterday's Results / Chase Today

We intercepted a very nice supercell yesterday south of Cordell, OK. Incredible structure and Baseball sized hail were observed! We witnessed some damage to the town of Rocky and I added a few new dents as well. I'll have a full report with pictures up on website later this (busy) week.

Today the potential exist for more severe storms and possibly tornadoes across eastern OK and northeast TX. Haven't dug into forecasting too much but I'll likely head east and south of Norman later on today. Expectations aren't high because of the dense forest/mountains/crappy road network but I'll give it a shot.

Getting Ready for Today

Will likely meet up with a few people in a couple of hours and head west around noon. Plan is to stop in Clinton or Weatherford and sit and wait for a while.

Chase Day - Sunday March 30th

Looks like a decent setup tomorrow but still some questions. In the upper levels, 500mb SW flow around 40kts will spread over much of the southern plains with main trough/vorticity maxima centered further north. 250mb jet streak will likely be entering west TX and TX panhandle late Sunday afternoon. At the surface, warm moist air will begin its return from the gulf today and continue overnight and into tomorrow morning. Further north, sfc cold front slides south throughout the day eventually stalling across northern OK into southern KS and possibly drifting back to the north a little Sunday night. A dryline will mix east across the TX panhandle and likely intersect the stalled front in the far eastern TX panhandle where strengthening sfc low seems to setup in the afternoon/evening. 850mb winds seem to remain out of the south-southwest throughout much of the day on Sunday contributing to warm layer overspreading much of the warm sector resulting in stout cap and delayed initiation. Without the upper support from 500mb wave, sfc features will have to overcome the warm layer to provide initiation in the late afternoon. This remains the biggest question with this setup. With this being said, models seem to back 850mb winds to a southerly direction and really kick-in as evening approaches and LLJ cranks to around +40kts. QPF fields are very reluctant to fire any convection due to capping as well. However, I'll be out chasing this event. My hopes are that one or two storms fire along stationary front near sfc low/dry line intersection during the evening before it gets dark. If this could happen, storms would likely have a nice environment to thrive in. Dewpoints into the mid 60's and CAPE values ~2000j/kg will provide nice instability to any storm that goes. 0-6km shear will be ample so any storms along or south of front will likely be supercells. Along the previously mentioned stationary front, sfc winds may have an easterly component and when coupled with strong LLJ, there may be favorable low-level winds to sustain mesocyclones and tornadoes into the evening hours. If cap holds strong then the majority of this chase may occur into Sunday evening. Good Luck to those heading out. Stay tuned for updates...

Pics fron 27th

A drove east a bit from Norman to get some structure shots, here is one of them:

Mid-week Update

Not much to get excited about as a slow end of March pattern continues. With that being said, I'm still watching Sunday 30th as a possible chase day. 12Z NAM shows great moisture/instability for this time of year but wind profiles aren't exactly what I'd like to see for tornadoes. Being on a Sunday though, I will watch closely and probably head somewhere in central Oklahoma. More on to come on Saturday with forecast and target....

Upcoming Storm Chances

Looks like this Wed. and Thurs. will both likely not be anything major or chase worthy. I'm keeping an eye on this weekend (Sunday 30th) heading into next week as there are hints of mid-upper level southwest flow across the plains and possibility of shortwaves coming through. Will update on Wednesday as to what the models are trending towards.

Back in Town

I'm finally back to Norman after a few days in Houston. Pattern has been and still is relatively slow. Looks like a possible setup on Thursday March 27th but just glancing at some data looks like capping may be issue. Not sure of anything after that. I'll keep an eye on stuff an update when necessary.

Report: March 17, 2008

Today we targeted Wichita Falls to Abilene, TX. Day started early with convection around Abilene about 1pm. On storm quickly went tornado warned while we were on our way there. Got there 5 minutes after a small reported tornado and saw a leftover wall cloud that was rotating and beginning to tighten up. It eventually crapped out and we st back for a while til around 530pm when another round fired off this time a bit south of Abilene. We got on a severe T-storm south of Abilen near Taylor/Runnels co. line This storm presented nice structure but not much of a tornado threat the storm ended up splitting and we followed it north. Encountered some nice hail with the right split then later the left split became tornado warned and tracked right toward downtown Abilene. We followed it through the city with no confirmed touchdowns. We stayed on this storm until just after dark shooting some nice CG lightning then returned back north making it back to Norman right at midnight.

Storm 1: Wall cloud near I-20 just west of Abilene.

Storm 2: Hail Producer near Taylor /Runnels County line.

Chase Today

Leaving for the National Weather Service building in a while to look over data and meet some people there. Gonna be hard in determining what will exactly happen today. Still have a general target from Abilene-Wichita Falls-Lawton. Maybe more later...

Chase Monday 17th

Looks like a chase is on for tomorrow but the details are still sketchy. As of now, there are two options I am thinking about:

Option 1: Venturing into west central TX, maybe Abilene, and starting from there.
Option 2: Staying in central/south-central Oklahoma and starting around Lawton area.

Depending on what the remaining model runs show and how things unfold early tomorrow morning, I will decide from there where to go.

Report: March 14, 2008

Me and Cassie ventured out to Woodward, OK early and watched things unfold. It became clear by 2pm or so that dewpoints were really struggling and wouldn't make the advertised return. A storm went up right on top of us about 4:30pm and we followed it north and then east across Woods and Alfalfa counties. It was extremely high based (given upper 30's -low 40's Td's) but was actually more impressive than I thought it would be given that environment. We met up with Brandon Lawson and Brett Roberts while we were out there and shot a few pics:

Heading out the door

Just about to leave. I always leave too damn early. Heading for Woodward to watch data for a long time. Probaly will work north and/or east from there.

Chase Today

Currently I'm still in Norman but plan on heading out to the OK/KS border (Harper/Barber/Woods/Alfalfa county) at about 11am or so. Biggest problem today will be low-level moisture. Deepening sfc low over eastern Colorado will move southeastward and eventually east later today. Hopefully winds will back to an ese direction and pull some decent moisture into the region. Good directional and speed shear will likely exist but moisture is still key. Right now, latest guidance shows 50F Td may be hard to achieve but I will monitor this closely. Still, both high-resolution WRF & NSSL models show cell firing in the above mentioned area around 4pm. I don't expect much in the way of tornado potential but a sculpted supercell would be nice. Will likely follow the storms east after sunset as long as road networks remain good. Will update later, either before leaving or on the road. Good luck to others heading out!

Time Lapse from Today

First real attempt at time lapse piece....

Thoughts for Friday 14th

Still planning on heading somewhere tomorrow midday. Right now, I am interested in the area from Stillwater to Ponca City as a starting point. Pretty complicated situation but my hopes are that decent moisture will advect back into parts of central/north central Oklahoma by midday due to a deepening surface low taking shape across western OK/TX panhandle. Left exit region of strong upper jet will be crossing the state in the late afternoon and this coupled with hopefully enough convergence along sfc low/frontal intersection may be enough to provide thunderstorm initiation in north central or northeast OK by late afternoon. 12Z NAM simulated reflectivity shows possibility of supercells forming at or near dark in that region then moving east into a favorable environment. Not expecting much at all but I'll be out there if anything exciting does happen.

Upcoming Storm Chases

Friday 14th
Don't know how this event will unfold but I'll be out there regardless. Right now, believing what the NAM is showing, I'll likely be hugging the sfc low across north-central OK into northeast Oklahoma. If the cap is an issue, this area near sfc low and frontal boundary intersection may provide the sufficient lift need to overcome the warm layer when coupled with a strong jet max and decent boundary layer moisture. Still going with current thinking of an area from Ponca City-Stillwater to Bartlesville-Tulsa as a starting point.

Monday 17th
Medium-long range models still with some differences but I am fairly confident I'll be on the plains Monday. Strong western US trough will begin to move east effecting the southern and central plains. Moisture may be a problem but looks like at least 1 full day of good flow off the gulf. No definite target area as of now.

Chase Oppurtunities Thurs-13th/Fri-14th

-Basing both of these forecasts off 12Z NAM/WRF from March 11, 2008-

-Both are likely to change!-

Thursday 13th
Shortwave trough crossing the central/southern plains Thursday afternoon could set off a few storms from Kansas to Texas. Area of interest would likely be in Ardmore, OK / Gainesville, TX area. At the surface, NAM forecasts ample moisture return into the area (50~55Td) with a sfc low developing in west TX ending up near Childress-Abilene-Wichita Falls region by late afternoon. Sfc winds may back to a southeasterly direction in response to deepening sfc low (<1000mb) while 850mb winds are decent at ~25kts from ssw. 500mb flow with associated trough will likely be in 40kt range. This should result in ample deep-layer shear (~45kts) over the area of interest. With decent moisture in place, sfc temperatures from 70-75F, and mid-level cooling with mid/upper level trough, CAPE values of 750-1200j/kg may be achieved over much of se OK and eastern TX. Currently, NAM does not break out any precip in the region until near dark on Thursday evening because of capping/subsidence issues but synoptic features could come together to allow storms to fire before dark if the trend in the models hold. Will update tomorrow...

Friday 14th
Strong, persistent westerly flow at mid/upper levels will continue to send disturbances into the central and southern plains extending into the Mississippi valley. At the sfc, another low will likely form somewhere in western OK. Much of the evolution for this day depends on how the Thursday event turns out. If moisture is not pushed to far south/east, deepening sfc low in OK may pull decent moisture back into regions of central/north-central/northeast OK with almost easterly sfc winds along KS/OK border midday. Current area of interest would be in the Ponca City-Bartlesville region near a possible occlusion point from sfc low, dryline, and warm front. (Main sever threat would likely be centered in a se OK/Arkansas/n Louisiana area but terrain is horrible there and this forecast is aimed more toward chaseable areas.) Wherever the warm/occluded frontal boundaries end up will likely be an area of interest. Flow at 500mb and up is very strong and directional wind shear profiles will likely be conducive to rotating storms. Will update tomorrow...

Testing...

Current Location

Long Range

Keeping an eye on a possibly active pattern from March 15th-18th. Below is 12z runs of GFS and ECMWF showing 500mb flow for Sunday morning the 16th.

Classic Tornado Videos

Andover, KS 1991

May 3, 1999 Fort Cobb, OK


Laverne, OK


Pampa, TX

Tornado Watch for Texas Coastal Plain

Thunderstorm are rapidly developing generally south of I-10 to the coastline ahead of an approaching upper trough swinging in from the west. At the surface a cold front extends across central TX moving southward toward the region. CAPE values from 500-1000 j/kg and deep layer shear generally around 50kts will allow some thunderstorms to develop and maintain supercell characteristics. +200 m2s2 0-1km SRH values and 0-1km vertical shear values of ~20kts may pose a tornado threat with any defined supercell. Currently, thereare 2 T-warnings: one in Goliad and one in Jim Wells Co, both of which are showing rotation in the low levels on radar.

Tornado Warnings above and 4 cells showing supercell characteristics on radar below...

NAM Snow on Thursday

The 12z run of the NAM from this morning shows much more accumalting snow from the system set to move across the area on Thursday. I hate to be talking snow right now but someone may see some significant totals. It will be interseting to see how this unfolds.

Latest total accumulations from this model are shown below...

March 2, 2008 Pictures

Here are a few video grabs from yesterday's chase in sw OK. Probaly won't write a full length report on website for this chase though.

I might get a video of the tornado warned storm we were on from Sean Waugh. He had his camera on the tripod for the duration and I might try to put together a timelapse piece of it to show the true rotation!

Also, Alex Lamers was with my group and he has a more detailed report here...

http://themicroburst.blogspot.com/

Almost..

Almost bagged a tornado today as a tornado warned supercell we where on looked like it would produce for a while. No luck but still a good chase! Have pics/report tomorrow hopefully. Right now I'm preparing for the snow...

About to Head Out

Things are looking fairly decent and I'll be heading out towards western/southwestern Oklahoma around 11am. Much of the warm sector is already filled with a low stratus deck already but that was expected. According to latest visible satellite, there are some areas near and south of Childress, TX with clear skies this morning. This may be a good sign that all the areas won't be under heavy cloud cover all day and that there will be pockets of nice heating along the dryline as it mixes east. I may update mid-day when I find a nice wi-fi spot.

Storm Chase Sunday March 2nd

I'll definitely be chasing tomorrow likely somewhere in western or north Texas. I'm not going to make a detailed forecast because the models are having quite a bit of difficulty in timing and placement of a lead shortwave that will eject out across the target area Sunday afternoon/evening. But I'm gonna look at things real closely in the morning and watch how it unfolds throughout the day and decide on a more precise target then. Right now I'm planning on leaving from Norman around 8-9am and heading down to Wichita Falls area and possibly then to Abilene region. I'll post again in the morning.

Car Repairs / Storm Chase Sunday 2nd?

Well my xterra has just about hit the 100,000 mile mark so its time to do some major maintenance before chase season really gets going. I recently got a full transmission service, fuel system service, oil change, etc.. Now it looks like I'll be getting a new water pump and timing belt as well hopefully before this weekend. Everything else seems to be in relatively good shape and all I will need throughout the season is a few oil changes and tire rotation (hopefully).

Looks a though a large longwave trough will develop and move across the central and eastern US late this weekend through early next week. On Sunday March 2nd, a sfc cold front will be surging southward across the central plains while the 500 mb axis, slightly positively tilted, will extend from the Dakotas SSW to New Mexico Sunday evening. NAM/WRF, GFS both depict a sfc low developing on the southwestern extent of the cold front somewhere in western north Texas likely. Modified gulf moisture should be in place with dewpoints generally ranging from 55-60 throughout much of central and northern Texas into south/southeastern Oklahoma. Still a ways out but looks like a chase may be in the works for northern TX on Sunday. I won't go into any more detail now but will likely post again Saturday as to if I'll be chasing along with a more detailed forecast.

Tornado Wacth for Gulf Coast / Cold End to February

A tornado watch has been issued for much of the se TX coast al region along with most of southern Louisiana. Two tornados have been reported so far near the TX/LA border not far north of the coast. A tornado warned cell is persisting northeast of lake Charles as of now and a couple more tornado reports are possible before the day is up.

Looking down the road at some medium-long range models, both ECMWF and GFS develop a large eastern US trough for about the last week of February. For the plains, this means northwest flow aloft with reinforcing sfc highs likely diving down into the Gulf. So it looks like no more chases for February but thats fine with me. March is rapidly approaching as well as spring break. March will likely present at least a few oppurtunities for the southern plains and who could forget the 28th of last year, http://www.capturethestorm.com/32807.htm. I'll be watching the pattrern closely and see how it evolves after the east coast trough move on out and hopefully somewhat of a zonal flow in the mid -levels can develop.

Ice for Southern Plains

A shallow cold layer of air has worked its way into the central and southern plains. The stage will be set for freezing rain later tonight when the sfc freeaing line migrates far enough south. Here's a total ice accumulation forecast from OUN NWS.

First Storm Chase of 2008

Well my first chase of the year in se Texas was pretty much a bust. I had a chance to make it into a vacation though and visit family in Houston for the weekend. Overall, it was a good chance for equipment tests and everything worked great. My backup/second laptop is on the way here and I will be installing all of my chasing software on it this week. Right now I have a busy week of school work ahead of me. I'll update later this week as March is slowly approaching and I'll be having an eye on the long range models.

Severe Storms Saturday?

The large upper level storm system set to hit part of Texas has slowed considerably on the models lately. Just looking at the 12z NAM today (14th), the closed 500mb low will be centered somewhere near Midland/Odessa at OOZ Sunday (Sat. Evening) with sw flow of 55-65kts spreading over central and southern TX. Above that, a 200mb jet streak will be rounding the base of the trough with winds of ~120kts from the WSW. At the low levels, a front will have pushed into the area sometime Friday and likely stall out near the coast. With the approach of the earlier menitoned trough, strong low-level warm advection should take place Fri night/Sat morning lifting the stationary front north some allowing richer gulf moisture to filter into southern TX. Sfc winds are forecasted to be from an SE direction at ~10kts. 850mb winds are likely to exceed 50kts from a southerly direction. With this said, the speed shear and directional shear profiles are supportive of supercells over much of southern TX. With 850mb winds quickly veering behind a cold front from the west coupled with strong forcing, a squall line will likely develop overnight but there may be a period with isolated supercells on the tounge of the low-level jet before that. Instability depends mainly on how far north the retreating front can make it but 500-1000j/kg CAPE values may be likely from I-1o south to the coast. With all this being said, I'm watching this closely for my first chase of 2008. It falls on a weekend so I might have to jump on it. Check back later for more details.

Extreme Early Target:
Yoakum, TX

Sounding for Victoria, TX 00z Sunday 17

Gulf Coast Storms

A tornado watch has been issued for the se TX coast and much of southern Louisiana. A complex of storms is heading se in advance of a cold front. Tornado spinups are possible along this line and with any storm that can form and maintian itself in front of the line.

In other news, one of my chase partners, Sean Waugh, has updated his vehicle for chasingwith a in-car-computer complete with a touch screen monitor, delorme street atlas, etc... I'll post some pics of this sweet setup as soon as I get them.

Storm Chances Next Week

A few storms may be possible Monday evening into Monday night across much of Oklahoma. Return flow of modified gulf air will make its way north into OK with upper 50's F dewpoints common throughout the state. A strong cold front will sweep down from the north with a dryline mixing east. Capping will likely prevail throuhgout much of the day but some elevated hailers may form north of the front with possibly some sfc based storms are possible near the dryline-coldfront intersection.

A larger storm system will likely affect the southern plains come next Friday (15th) as a closed low tracks across the SW US. Cold air will filter in from the north while the Gulf of Mexico may open up and send plentiful moisture northward. A swath of snow/ice may develop north of the upper low while severe storms form to the south .

Deadly Outbreak

At least 45-47 people are confirmed dead as reported from CNN. It was a historic outbreak. Most of the deaths were due largely to the majority of tornadoes that struck after dark and the extreme storm speeds as well. Mosts chasers had difficulty keeping up with the storms but at least two I know of saw tornadoes yesterday. Here are some radar grabs of a few supercells yesterday.

Two tornadic supercells here..